UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit | Predictions

This weekend, 2nd January 2016 is UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit. It is the first UFC event of 2016 and it will be held at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. This blog post will go through who I think is going to win on the night. For the preliminary card I won't go in to much detail, I will just say who I think is going to win. On the main card I will discuss my predictions in more detail.

Preliminary predictions:

Edgar Garcia to beat Sheldon Westcott
Joe Soto to beat Michinori Tanaka
Dustin Poirier to beat Joseph Duffy
Scott Holtzman to beat Drew Dober 
Justine Kish to beat Nina Ansaroff
Kyle Noke to beat Alex Morono
Michael McDonald to beat Masanoi Kanehara

Main card predictions:

Abel Trujillo vs. Tony Sims:

This is a tough fight to predict. Abel Trujillo who has lost his last 2 fights, has a record of 12 wins and 7 losses. Tony Sims lost his last fight, and has a record of 12 wins and 3 losses. I think Abel Trujillo will win the fight. He will use his superior wrestling to win. Sims has finished every fight he has won, however 10 of these have been via a knockout. Trujillo has only been knocked out once and I can't see Sims repeating this. I predict Abel Trujillo to win via decision.

Diego Brandao vs. Brian Ortega:

Brandao goes into the fight having won his last 2, and has a record of 20 wins and 10 losses. Ortega has 9 wins, 1 no contest with no defeats. Despite Ortega being the favourite, I predict that Brandao wins this fight. Brandao is more experienced and has fought against a higher calibre of opponent. In his last 2 fights Brandao has looked exceptional in finishing both opponents in the first round. Ortega won his last fight, but did however show some weaknesses in his back and fourth exciting fight of the night against Thiago Tavares. I can see Brandao exploiting these weaknesses. I predict Diego Brandao to win via TKO in the second round.

Albert Tumenov vs. Lorenz Larkin:

Tumenov has won his last 4, while compiling a record of 16 wins and 2 losses. Larkin has won his last 2, with a record of 17 wins, 1 no contest and 3 losses. Since moving to welterweight Lorenz Larkin has looked impressive, however Tumenov will be his biggest test so far. I think Tumenov will be a step to far and I can see him knocking him out. However I wouldn't be surprised to see Larkin also win via knockout. I predict Tumenov to win via second round KO.

Stipe Miocic vs. Andrei Arlovski:

Miocic who is ranked number 3 in the UFC heavyweight division, won his last fight against Mark Hunt and has a record 13 wins and 2 losses. Arlovski, the number 2 ranked heavyweight, has won his last 6 fights, and has compiled 25 wins, 1 no contest and 10 defeats. I think that despite Arlovski's recent run of good form, I expect Miocic to have far too much for him. Miocic however needs to step it up. Nobody doubts his ability but in the past it has seemed that he has not stepped it up enough on the big occasion. The winner should be inline for a title shot, so Miocic needs to be impressive in this performance and I predict he will use his wrestling to great affect in this fight. I predict Stipe Miocic to win via decision.

Robbie Lawler (c) vs. Carlos Condit:

Lawler, the champion last defended his belt against Rory MacDonald. He has a record of 26 wins, 1 no contest and 10 losses. Condit who win his last fight, has achieved a record of 30 wins with 8 defeats. I think Condit doesn't particularly deserve his title shot. Nobody doubts his ability as a fighter, but his recent record isn't the best. In his last 5 fights he has lost 3 of them. On the other hand Lawler has looked the best of his career and I don't think Condit will be able to stop his run. Arguable a win will put him in the argument for being the best pound for pound fighter in the UFC. I predict Robbie Lawler to win via decision.

Peter Ashdown
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